Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Reported Terminated Pregnancy Across Nigerian States (2013-2024)
This study employs a Bayesian spatio-temporal framework to analyze 2013–2024 NDHS data, revealing a dual reproductive regime in Nigeria where southern states exhibit rising termination rates driven by reproductive agency and access, while northern states face increases due to unmet contraceptive needs and structural vulnerability, thereby advocating for state-specific rather than homogenous national reproductive health policies.